Oil Production & It’s Influence On The Value of the IQD

Occasionally, I will take time to answer questions from curious investors even though I’ve tried hard to stay off the web community. 

The question is in reference to my opinion on the speculation of how much the dinar will be influenced by the oil sector.

Iraq’s oil production was speculated in the early part of 2010 to be somewhere around 12 to 16 billion barrels of oil per week.  The last report given on March 28, 2010 in a Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding from the IMF states,

While the volumes of oil production and exports in 2010 have been lower than we had planned, mainly due to adverse weather conditions, attacks on pipelines, and political constraints that prevented an increase in exports from our northern fields, this was more than offset by higher- than-budgeted oil prices. Oil production averaged 2.35 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2010, exports averaged 1.85 mbpd, and prices averaged about $74 per barrel. Thus, aided by higher-than-budgeted oil revenues and with a lower rate of execution of the capital budget, we expect that the government budget deficit in 2010 remained limited to about ID 10 trillion (IMF presentation), equivalent to about 11 percent of GDP.

With this being said, it seems that Iraq did indeed intend on producing even higher numbers, yet they were still able to meet original goals with little influence from such adverse conditions.

Will the price of oil being a deciding factor on how much the value of the Dinar rises?  Of course it will.  Will it be the sole discretion on determining the amount of the IQD? Of course not.  However, every country has a gross domestic product that determines a country’s ability.  I believe Iraq is proving this.  In some cases, they are far more stable than the rest of us.

As for the revaluation… I’ve always said that the moment that Iraq becomes globally recognized that even if they don’t chose the amount in which they wish to RV that the natural influence of pressure against the Dinar will cause it to rocket either way… Simple economics…. lol  It won’t happen like that due to Iraq being able to control their destiny and learn from the mistake of Kuwait.  They will have a managed float and it won’t be slow…   Good night everyone!

Online Personalities

It is strange to see how people present themselves through the world-wide web.  Anyone can jump online and become anyone they wish and while they are at it they can twist and morph into someone they wished that they were.  They hide behind screen names as to hide their real identity and given the right environment they have the power to mislead countless people.  Are their lives lacking substance? Are they so small in the real world that they have to create an on-line personality that is built upon lies and decent in order to make them feel important?  Honestly, if it didn’t have any effect on anyone I wouldn’t care, but it does.

I’ve met several who are like this.  I’ve gotten to know them well and as a result I saw them for who they are.  Users. People haven’t the ability to see someone sitting in their underwear aged from the hard life that they have created for themselves, typing away upon their keyboards and creating stories as they go along.  And, as a result, they believe the stories these petty people create, people who never had any REAL intel to begin with.

I catch them in lies all the time.  At first, I felt the need to prove they are lying, but then I realized that it was my notice of them that fueled them and it was my mention of them that kept their false on-line personality going.  Knowledge is power!

How sorry I feel for them.

Thinking of Trying Something New

For a while now I’ve joined in on several discussions involving global politics and economic theories.  I normally keep copies of things I’ve shared on my hard drive, however I think I may begin to post them here also.  It will allow me to have a back up copy and also allow me to create an library of the discussions as well.  I will be posting both old and new discussions as I upload them.

Groovgal’s Speculative Theory On Future Values of The IQD

As for the concern of at what amount Iraq will exchange at… I want to say that when I express my theories on rates it is done so with not a mere whim to expel what I’ve heard.  I truly enjoy studying economics for fun and I’ve run over the various theories over rates several times in an attempt to prove my own theory in correct, however each time I find further evidence to conclude and even concrete my theory that a higher rate than that of a 1/1 trade is probable and sustainable without extreme risk to Iraq’s economy or its assets.  While I have been continuously told that the rate will be in the $3+ range by my very near and dear friend who I trust tremendously; I’ve still taken it upon myself to prove that it is possible.  Throughout my studies I created the opinion that I cannot see Iraq emerging into the free exchange market with a currency valued less than approximately $2.80 IQD to every 1 USD.  Yet, I feel to even out trade imbalances and to create a healthy relationship with other Arab nations and oil producing nations, I feel that it would be in Iraq’s best interest to emerge at a rate closer to $3.00 or above, yet not as high as that of the KWD.

Groovgal’s Thoughts On Iraq’s Political Situation And The Possible Revalue/LOP of The Iraqi Dinar

It appears as if there has been another agreement to delay the formation of the government.  I personally do not believe that there is truly any delay in the formation of the government itself, instead I believe that there has been some road block set in place due to Maliki’s insistence on being placed within the upper three tiers of the governmental seating arrangement.

There have been several articles that have come out today that are very interesting.  Most are easily understood while one has even me a tad bit stumped.  I especially enjoyed reading Allawi’s interview with CNN saying that it is time for Maliki to go!  And, within the article he further says that Maliki’s own political blocs should essentially talk him into giving up his fight for power for the good of the people.  I personally couldn’t agree more with Allawi.  The entire mess is proving to be insane and even crazier than the Bush/Gore election results.

Groovgal’s Thoughts On Iraq (July 24, 2007)

Hey peeps!

It seems as if there is still lots of news coming out about the election results today as there has been for weeks.  Today, we’ve seen a mixed sort of news that seems to be somewhat confusing as usual.  Arabish certainly isn’t the easiest to read and you really have to slow down and read it carefully.

From what I understand, it seems as if all parties are aware of the impeding deadline to resolve the issue of forming the government.  In an article titled, “Member of the Iraqi List Shows Optimism About Breakthrough’s In Forming a Government,” it states that the Iraqi List (Allawi) is fighting for its constitutional right to form a government within the 15-day deadline stated within the article.  It further states that Allawi is fighting for his agenda to provide a “…decent living for all individual member of society.”  I found this phrase very interesting, as it appears to insinuate that economic growth and prosperity are still at the top of the Iraqi List (Allawi) agenda for their administration.

Groovgal’s Breakdown of The Center for Studies and Research / Consultant for the CBI. The appearance of Chairman Mohammed Saleh. Part 3

A few days ago I broke down parts 1 and 2 of the Center for Studies and Research / Consultant for the CBI.  The appearance of Chairman Mohammed Saleh.

Parts 1 and 2 covered the Central Bank of Iraq’s financial system, partial history of its currency, the Strategic Framework Agreement, and the reintegration of the Iraqi Dinar into the flexible exchange rate system that is recognized internationally.  Although these articles are translated into English, I’ve had some individuals contact me asking to further clarify these articles into simpler terms.  I’ve taken it upon myself to add additional information or further explanation beyond what the articles entail for mere educational purposes.

Center for Studies and Research / Consultant CBI d. The appearance of Mohammed Saleh Parts 1 and 2

Center for Studies and Research / Consultant CBI d. The appearance of Mohammed Saleh Part 1

اولاً

Result of foreign exchange reserves is primarily a movement of the balance of payments or the external sector of the economy of the country, and he was being an increase or decrease in the light of these persistent external movement. The exercise of this reserve and the central function and fundamental barrier is being a “major shock absorber, leading to the continued stability of the national currency at the foreign currency. Accumulation of foreign currency at the CBI, which represents its international reserves have been through the establishment of the Ministry of Finance swap of its revenue in dollars, which is caused mainly from Iraq’s oil exports to meet their access to Metrgbh of the Iraqi dinar source of the CBI, to cover the costs of local public to enter Dinar trading local source in the Iraqi market, but through the doors of exchange in the general budget of the State.

Groovgal’s Thoughts On The Situation In Iraq (July 15, 2010)

A lot has taken place over the past days and I’ve tried my best to catch up on all the news coming out of Iraq.  It appears that the political arena is getting a bit of a shake down! This is wonderful for us, in my opinion, as well as the Iraqi people.

Many of you know little history of the Iraqi war.  When Maliki took office he wasn’t the United States leading man, however we had to appease certain demographics to deter the civil war that broke out at that time.  Allowing Maliki into his position was a concession and obviously a rather bad one.  A little while back it was written that Maliki was involved in the attempt to destroy contracts to cover up his corruption and in the past days it has been revealed that there was another bombing against the CBI… It leads one to wonder…..

“Ghost Writer” by Rene Gutteridge is fantastic!

I just finish the last page of Rene Gutteridge’s novel, “Ghost Writer.”  The plot kept me reeling for answers with each page I turned and truly exceeded my expectations!  If you’re looking for a wonderful summer read, I suggest you pick up a copy of this novel. You will not be disappointed in the least!